65 seats for a majority of the 129-seat Scottish Parliament: 73 constituency members and 56 regional list members. The smaller figure on each card splits them — C for constituency, R for regional list. Ranges are 5th–95th percentile across the simulations.
Majority odds
Constituency vote
Regional list vote
Constituency vote
Regional list vote
In 2026 the Greens took 2.3% of the constituency vote (they stood in six seats of 73) and 14.0% of the list vote. Their constituency slider stops at 8.5% for that reason: that is every vote cast in those six seats, so it is the most they could win even taking all of them.
| Region | List vote share | Constituency seats | List seats (7), in allocation order | Next |
|---|
The list top-up divides each party’s regional vote by the seats it already holds in that region plus one, so a party that sweeps the constituencies starts the list count heavily divided. Squares run in the order the seats were awarded; Next is who would take an eighth list seat if the region elected one.
| Constituency | Region | Winner | SNP | LAB | RFM | CON | LDM | GRN | RES | Oth | Maj (pts) |
|---|
Regions: C&LW Central Scotland and Lothians West · E&LE Edinburgh and Lothians East · G Glasgow · H&I Highlands and Islands · M&F Mid Scotland and Fife · NE North East Scotland · S South Scotland · W West Scotland. Hovering a code shows its full name, and the filter box still matches on it.
Data filters
Model parameters
Methodology
Each pollster carries a score from their historic accuracy, shown 0–100 in the coloured circle beside their name. A grey circle (50) is a pollster with no track record yet, scored as an average 3-point error.
So a high-volume pollster can’t dominate the average by sheer quantity, a firm publishing several times inside a 10-day window has its weight shared across those polls.
The trendline is a tricube-weighted local average over a 70-day window — wide, because Holyrood polling is sparse enough that a narrow window would let a single poll swing the average. Each vote is smoothed separately and anchored on the actual 7 May 2026 result, so both lines start from a known point.
A two-pass robust fit: the first pass measures how far each poll sits from the trend, then re-weights it down — to zero for extreme outliers — before fitting again.
Pollsters ask every respondent how they would vote locally, including in the many seats the Greens do not contest — they stood in six of 73 in 2026. The chart shows what the polls found, but the figure fed to the projection is 40% of the Green constituency average, which is roughly what that question has historically converted to once candidacy is accounted for. No other party is adjusted.