65 seats for a majority of the 129-seat Scottish Parliament: 73 constituency members and 56 regional list members. The smaller figure on each card splits them — C for constituency, R for regional list. Ranges are 5th–95th percentile across the simulations.
Majority odds
Constituency vote
Regional list vote
Constituency vote
Regional list vote
In 2026 the Greens took 2.3% of the constituency vote (they stood in six seats of 73) and 14.0% of the list vote. Their constituency slider stops at 8.5% for that reason: that is every vote cast in those six seats, so it is the most they could win even taking all of them.
| Region | List vote share | Constituency seats | List seats (7), in allocation order | Next |
|---|
The list top-up divides each party’s regional vote by the seats it already holds in that region plus one, so a party that sweeps the constituencies starts the list count heavily divided. Squares run in the order the seats were awarded; Next is who would take an eighth list seat if the region elected one.
| Constituency | Region | Winner | SNP | LAB | RFM | CON | LDM | GRN | Oth | Maj (pts) |
|---|
Regions: C&LW Central Scotland and Lothians West · E&LE Edinburgh and Lothians East · G Glasgow · H&I Highlands and Islands · M&F Mid Scotland and Fife · NE North East Scotland · S South Scotland · W West Scotland. Hovering a code shows its full name, and the filter box still matches on it.
Data filters
Model parameters
Methodology
Each pollster carries a score from their historic accuracy, shown 0–100 in the coloured circle beside their name. A grey circle (50) is a pollster with no track record yet, scored as an average 3-point error.
So a high-volume pollster can’t dominate the average by sheer quantity, a firm publishing several times inside a 10-day window has its weight shared across those polls.
The trendline is a tricube-weighted local average over a 56-day window — wide, because Holyrood polling is sparse enough that a narrow window would let a single poll swing the average. Each vote is smoothed separately and anchored on the actual 7 May 2026 result, so both lines start from a known point.
A two-pass robust fit: the first pass measures how far each poll sits from the trend, then re-weights it down — to zero for extreme outliers — before fitting again.
Pollsters ask every respondent how they would vote locally, including in the many seats the Greens do not contest — they stood in six of 73 in 2026. The chart shows what the polls found, but the figure fed to the projection is the Green constituency average divided by three, which is roughly what that question has historically converted to once candidacy is accounted for. No other party is adjusted.